Al-Jolani’s Call for Iraqi Neutrality: A Shift in Syrian Conflict Dynamics?

Magnifying glass focused on the Middle East map.

Amid the escalating Syrian conflict, HTS leader al-Jolani’s appeal to Iraq may shape the region’s precarious stability.

At a Glance

The Syrian conflict has reemerged amidst Middle Eastern tensions.
Rebel group HTS, led by al-Jolani, calls for Iraqi neutrality.
Iran and Hezbollah have been weakened; Russia refocuses on Ukraine.
Kataeb Hezbollah urges Iraqi support for Assad, sparking concerns.

Al-Jolani’s Appeal to Iraq

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has publicly asked Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, to maintain neutrality in the Syrian conflict. Al-Jolani’s plea highlights the intricate and volatile politics existing in the Middle East, where historical allegiances and enmities often pivot rapidly. This call underscores fears of further destabilization if neighboring countries become entangled in Syria’s affairs, possibly worsening the already fragile regional stability.

This call to Iraq aligns with the complex geopolitics engulfing Syria, compounded by the war’s reinstallation. The conflict’s resurgence comes during broader Middle Eastern turmoil after Hamas attacks on Israel, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime enduring over a decade through alliances with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. However, Israeli offensives have weakened Iran and Hezbollah, and Russia remains preoccupied with the situation in Ukraine.

NEW — Syrian rebel leader Jolani urges Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani to prevent the deployment of Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces to Syria.

Striking a calm tone,he also says the Syrian revolutionary forces want strategic and economic ties with Iraq. pic.twitter.com/LzkcPW4E5O

— Timour Azhari (@timourazhari) December 5, 2024

Regional Implications and Security Concerns

Al-Jolani’s request coincides with varying stances within Iraq regarding Syria. Kataeb Hezbollah, affiliated with Iran and part of Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi militia, called for dispatching troops to bolster Assad. These developments raise serious security concerns, including Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani’s assertion about the interconnectedness of Iraqi and Syrian stability. Conversely, influential Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr advocates for Iraq’s non-involvement.

“The latest developments pose severe risks to civilians and have serious implications for regional and international security… No Syrian party or existing group of actors can resolve the Syrian conflict via military means,” said UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen.

Al-Jolani cautioned against Hashed al-Shaabi entering Syrian territory, with Russians emphasizing that such a move risks both regional escalation and detriment to Iraq. Although Hashed leaders deny extraterritorial mobilization, reports from sources like the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights indicate an influx of pro-Iranian Iraqi fighters into Syria, further complicating Iraq’s political stance.

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A Volatile Future for the Region

Despite the perennial violence, lasting ceasefires have eluded the troubled territory as political resolutions stagnate. With UN initiatives like Security Council resolution 2254 languishing unimplemented, the Assad regime continues to hold key centers against the resistance’s advances. The Syrian conflict’s layered dynamics, marked by factions like HTS launching significant campaigns from Idlib, reflect the region’s fractured control.

In light of these developments, the global community remains apprehensive about Syria’s future. With military solutions continually proving inadequate, the emphasis rests on political negotiations to avert further catastrophic destabilization in the region.