Antibiotic Resistance Predicted to Cause Major Global Crisis by 2050

A new study reveals that antibiotic-resistant infections could claim over 39 million lives globally by 2050, with far-reaching economic consequences.

At a Glance

Antibiotic-resistant infections may cause 39 million deaths globally by 2050
Annual deaths from these infections could rise to 10.13 million by 2050
Economic impact could reduce global GDP by up to $3.4 trillion by 2030
Low- and middle-income countries are at highest risk

Alarming Forecast: The Rise of Antibiotic Resistance

A groundbreaking study published in The Lancet has sounded the alarm on the growing threat of antibiotic-resistant infections. The Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, the first comprehensive analysis of global antimicrobial resistance (AMR) trends over time, paints a grim picture of our future if urgent action is not taken.

According to the study, more than 39 million people worldwide could die from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years. This stark projection underscores the critical need for immediate and coordinated global efforts to combat what experts are calling a “silent pandemic.”

A Growing Threat: Past, Present, and Future

The study reveals that over one million people died each year from AMR between 1990 and 2021. However, the situation is expected to worsen dramatically. By 2050, annual deaths directly attributable to AMR could reach 1.91 million, marking a 70% increase from 2022 levels. When considering deaths in which AMR played a contributing role, the numbers become even more alarming, with projections suggesting an increase from 4.71 million to 8.22 million deaths per year by 2050.

“Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern. These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing. Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives,” said study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi, Team Leader of the AMR Research Team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, USA.

The impact of AMR is not uniform across age groups. While deaths among children under five declined by 50% from 1990 to 2021, deaths among people aged 70 and older increased by over 80% during the same period. This shift in demographics presents new challenges for healthcare systems worldwide.

Economic Consequences and Global Impact

The threat of AMR extends beyond public health, with potentially devastating economic consequences. Projections suggest that AMR could lead to $1 trillion in additional healthcare costs and a 3.8% loss of global GDP by 2050. This economic burden will likely be felt most acutely in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

“There has been real progress in tackling AMR, particularly among young children, but our findings indicate more must be done to protect people from this growing global health threat. By 2050, resistant infections could be involved in some 8 million deaths each year, either as the direct cause of death or as a contributing factor. To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to decrease the risk of severe infections through vaccines, new drugs, improved healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics, and guidance on how to use them most effectively,” said study author Dr Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and affiliate professor at IHME.

A Call to Action: Combating the Silent Pandemic

The study emphasizes the urgent need for a multi-faceted approach to combat AMR. This includes improving infection prevention, promoting vaccination, minimizing inappropriate antibiotic use, and investing in research for new antibiotics. Particularly promising is the potential impact of developing new antibiotics targeting Gram-negative bacteria, which could avert 11.08 million AMR-attributable deaths globally.

“This is really a very silent pandemic, and it’s growing. Our attention needs to be there now,” Ahmed Ogwell, vice president of global health strategy at the UN Foundation and former acting director-general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), told Euronews Health.

As the world grapples with this growing threat, it’s clear that coordinated global action is urgently needed. The upcoming high-level United Nations meeting on AMR aims to reinvigorate international efforts to curb antibiotic misuse. For the sake of future generations and global health security, it’s imperative that world leaders heed this call to action and work together to combat the rising tide of antibiotic resistance.