House Republicans on Edge: Concerns of Shutdown Impact Intensify

With a potential government shutdown looming, vulnerable House Republicans are growing increasingly anxious about the political fallout.

At a Glance

House Republicans are concerned about attaching a proof-of-citizenship voting bill to a stopgap funding bill, risking a government shutdown.
Speaker Mike Johnson proposed extending the funding deadline with the controversial SAVE Act.
The SAVE Act is unlikely to pass in the Democratic-led Senate.
Johnson faces significant opposition from Republicans in swing districts who fear a shutdown could harm their reelection chances.

Fears Amid Looming Shutdown

Vulnerable House Republicans, particularly those in competitive districts, are apprehensive as the threat of a government shutdown looms. They fear the political fallout of failing to reach a funding agreement, which could alienate moderate voters and jeopardize their upcoming re-election campaigns. The stakes are high, given the Republicans’ narrow four-seat majority in the House.

The concern grows as Speaker Mike Johnson proposes a plan to extend the funding deadline to next year while attaching the controversial SAVE Act. This act mandates proof of citizenship for voter registration, a measure that is unlikely to pass in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Johnson’s proposal has sparked a serious debate within the GOP. Representatives from swing districts, particularly those who hold seats that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, are worried about the potential backlash from their constituents. This growing concern is pressuring GOP leaders to find a resolution that avoids a government shutdown while addressing intra-party divisions.

House Democrats are ready to pass responsible funding bills that address urgent needs here at home and crises around the world.

It's time for House Republicans to work with us to avoid a government shutdown.

— House Democrats (@HouseDemocrats) February 28, 2024

Divided House Republican Stance

The plan to attach the SAVE Act to a continuing resolution is unlikely to gain traction in the Senate. Republicans in toss-up districts have voiced their fears about the potential repercussions of a shutdown. For instance, Representatives Nick LaLota and Mariannette Miller-Meeks have pressed Johnson on his strategy and the potential consequences should the Senate reject the package.

Speaker Mike Johnson, however, argues the need for a March deadline to reconcile spending differences and avoid a last-minute holiday spending fight. He believes that pushing the SAVE Act demonstrates the party’s commitment to addressing election integrity issues.

“It’s all as clear as mud,” Representative Drew Ferguson of Georgia remarked following a closed-door meeting where Johnson outlined various spending strategies.

Political and Intra-Party Pressure

The proposal faces resistance not only from Democrats but also from Republicans advocating for a cleaner approach to spending. Hard-line GOP members have threatened to vote against any spending deal that does not include the SAVE Act. The House Freedom Caucus has endorsed a continuing resolution extending into early 2025, provided it includes the voter citizenship proof legislation.

The political stakes are high. Securing a continuing resolution may require Johnson to seek Democratic votes, a move that historically led to then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster after he advanced a clean spending deal with Democratic support. Majority Whip Tom Emmer is set to begin rallying support for Johnson’s plan imminently.

“Especially in a divided government, we’re going to have to find compromise. We’re going to have to find areas of agreement,” noted Representative Mike Lawler. “And for the handful of people that are unwilling to do that, it’s frankly destructive to the country and really harmful to the American people.”

Challenges for the GOP

With Republicans already failing to pass all 12 appropriations bills before the August recess, the leadership faces immense pressure to unite the party while negotiating with the Senate. Some Republicans prefer a stopgap bill lasting until early December, though they are unlikely to challenge Johnson’s current plan.

“How long do we take this? Is the intent to message ‘Dems oppose SAVE,’ but are we going to take this to a shutdown?” one Republican questioned, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Johnson’s strategy.

The next few weeks are critical for the GOP. They must balance party expectations, electoral concerns, and legislative realities to avoid a shutdown that could have far-reaching consequences.