Buttigieg and Sanders leading in the trickle-down of Iowa results.
National polls off by a huge margin.
Biden takes a hit.
Heading towards Super Tuesday.
(NewsReady.com) – The Debacle in Iowa grinds on with former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) in a statistical dead heat for number one. Former Vice President Joe Biden is in danger of not securing a single delegate to the Democratic Party’s National Convention.
That raises the same question that came up after Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 bid to become president of the United States (POTUS): Are the national polls that track the candidates’ potential voter appeal as accurate as they claim? And what does that mean for the upcoming primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina?
In the run-up to the Hawkeye State caucuses, the vast majority of those tallies had Buttigieg in the single digits and Biden as the front-runner. For example, on January 27, 2020, Quinnipiac University had it as Biden-26, Sanders-21, and “Mayor Pete”-6. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal (NBC/WSJ) had it scored 26-27-7 as of January 29th, and the LA Times (LAT) had it 34-18-9 as of January 28th.
Most of these news surveys claim an uncertainty of +/-3%, meaning that if a predicted number of votes is 10% the actual result would fall between 7% and 13%. Buttigieg’s actual number topped the poll data by 300% or more, while Biden garnered less than half in the case of the LAT. It makes one wonder, were the pollsters using a scientific method, divination, or trying for a self-fulfilling prophecy?
What does this mean for the next primary on February 11, 2020, in New Hampshire? The first question has to be, will the candidates have final figures from Iowa to tout while stumping around the state?
In the real world, this kind of thing can make a big difference. Two groups that track these numbers conducted canvases that were for the day of the Iowa caucuses and the day after, these were Emmerson College and Suffolk University. Both show Buttigieg got a statistically significant boost, 5%, and 4% respectively. Not bad for a day’s work.
The dates of the other early primary states are February 22nd for Nevada and February 29th for South Carolina. Will the national polls catch up to the reality of the votes already cast, or will the results in those locations fall in line with the “general consensus?”
Only time will tell.
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