Gas Gamble Explodes Across Southeast Asia

Green fuel nozzle pumping gas into a white car — Photo: SUPAWADEE3625 / Shutterstock

Southeast Asian governments are pouring billions into new gas plants and LNG import terminals even after a Middle East war exposed how fragile that fuel supply chain can be.

Story Snapshot

Southeast Asia is building more than 100 gigawatts of gas-fired power plants and 70 million tons of yearly LNG import capacity, according to think tank Global Energy Monitor.
The buildout continues despite supply risks from the ongoing war in the Middle East, which threatens shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines are each expanding terminals, with Thailand aiming to nearly triple its import capacity.
Analysts warn the expansion could lock countries into a fuel prone to price swings and supply shocks instead of protecting them.

Region Presses Ahead With Massive Gas Expansion

Southeast Asia is developing more than 100 gigawatts of gas-fired power capacity and 70 million tons per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity, Reuters reported on September 23, citing data from the U.S.-based think tank Global Energy Monitor. That buildout is moving forward even though the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised fresh doubts about the safety of LNG shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz.

The scale of investment is enormous. Semafor reported the total price tag for the region’s gas expansion at roughly 160 billion dollars, covering new power plants, pipelines, and import terminals across multiple countries. Domestic gas fields in some nations could ease future shortages, but new supply takes years to develop and will not remove the region’s growing reliance on imported fuel anytime soon.

Thailand Leads With Biggest Terminal Buildout

Thailand already has the largest operational LNG import capacity in the region at 19 million tonnes per year, and it plans a third terminal at Map Ta Phut that could add another 5 million tonnes. Combined, its existing and planned terminals would push total capacity past 20 million tonnes annually, according to The Nation Thailand. One report pegs the eventual target even higher, with Thailand expanding from 9 million tons of capacity to 27 million tons to “support regional energy needs”.

Vietnam is following a similar path. The country has 14 LNG projects in the pipeline that could raise its import capacity from 4 million tonnes to nearly 26 million tonnes per year. The Philippines already runs six LNG projects providing 10.3 million tonnes of capacity, with new developments that could push that total to 24.2 million tonnes. Each country is betting that more import infrastructure means more energy security.

Analysts Question Whether More Gas Means More Security

Not everyone agrees that piling on more LNG terminals actually protects the region. A 2024 report from Global Energy Monitor warned that current expansion plans could double Southeast Asia’s gas-fired power capacity and boost LNG import capacity by 80 percent. If those projects get built, the report cautioned, they could lock countries into a fuel that is “economically volatile and insecure”.

That warning lines up with a broader pattern seen across Asia’s energy policy debates. A policy brief on ASEAN’s petroleum security framework noted that gas demand keeps climbing in the power and industrial sectors, but the region’s existing safety mechanisms do not adequately cover gas-specific supply risks. LNG terminals, pipelines, and offshore fields all face heightened operational and geopolitical threats, which raises the odds of future disruptions hitting the same countries trying to build their way to safety.

Money and Politics Drive the Buildout

The incentives pushing this expansion are straightforward. Developers, utilities, and gas exporters profit from new terminals, pipelines, and long-term supply contracts, while governments get to tell voters that gas keeps the lights on and factories running. Thailand’s Gulf MTP LNG Terminal, for example, has already signed multi-decade supply deals with European energy firms Eni and Engie, locking in gas flows for years to come.

Meanwhile, groups warning about overcapacity and stranded-asset risk face an uphill fight, since their argument requires governments to slow down projects that are already funded and under construction. Woodmac data shows regional LNG demand is still projected to rise from 27 million tonnes in 2025 to 39 million tonnes by 2028, giving planners cover to keep building even as risk warnings mount. For everyday citizens across the region, the outcome will shape electricity bills and blackout risks for decades, regardless of who wins the policy argument in the meantime.

Whether this bet pays off depends on factors well beyond any single country’s control, including how long the Middle East conflict disrupts shipping and how fast alternative gas supplies come online. For now, the construction cranes keep rising across Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, built on the wager that more LNG infrastructure is worth the risk it is meant to solve.