Vatican-China Dynamics: Taiwan’s Delicate Diplomacy After Pope’s Death

Sunset light behind historic domed cathedral building

As Pope Francis is mourned worldwide, Taiwan faces the crucial challenge of maintaining its unique diplomatic relationship with the Vatican amidst the shadow of China.

Key Takeaways

The Vatican is the only European state with formal ties to Taiwan.
Pope Francis’s funeral on April 26 will draw numerous global leaders.
Relations between the Vatican and China have warmed since 2013.
Diplomatic relations could shift, affecting Taiwan’s standing.
Experts suggest the next pope will cautiously handle Vatican-China relations.

Diplomatic Attendees and Implications

Pope Francis’s funeral on April 26 is set to attract at least 130 foreign delegations, including 50 heads of state and 10 reigning monarchs. Notable attendees include Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump, and Volodymyr Zelensky, illustrating the high-stakes diplomatic intentions behind the gathering. Similar to the 2005 funeral of St. John Paul II, this event presents vital diplomatic opportunities without the formal presence of Holy See officials between pontificates. “What’s likely to happen is backchannel diplomacy,” observed François Mabille.

World leaders will be seated in French alphabetical order, reinforcing French as the primary diplomatic language. Despite the significant gathering, major absences include Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The absence of Holy See officials calls for informal diplomatic interactions, which could easily impact international relations moving forward. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re will lead the service, celebrating themes championed by Pope Francis throughout his papacy.

(2/2) Spanish Daily ABC: A follow-up question on my previous one, also regarding Pope Francis’ passing. Pope #Francis publicly expressed several times his desire to visit China and meet with Chinese leader. I would like to ask, would the Vatican breaking diplomatic ties with… pic.twitter.com/8ARhaVMcQB

— DHMT_MFA_CHINA (@DHMT_MFA_CHINA) April 25, 2025

Taiwan’s Diplomatic Efforts Amidst Vatican-China Relations

Amid mourning, Taiwan faces potential adversity arising from its complex relationship with the Vatican, especially as Vatican-China relations have strengthened since 2013. President William Lai initially planned to attend the papal funeral but ultimately sent former Vice President Chen Chien-jen, marking a strategic diplomatic gesture. Chen expressed hope for future invitations to papal events. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/28/2003835942

“This is a global meeting, and our participation has demonstrated that Taiwan is part of the world,” said Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu.

Among global leaders present, Chen participated in informal discussions, including a brief conversation with former U.S. President Joe Biden about the Cancer Moonshot Initiative. The conclave to elect the next pope is anticipated to commence soon, which may influence Taiwan-Vatican relations. Experts suspect the new pope will navigate Vatican-China affairs conservatively to maintain Taiwan’s diplomatic standing while adhering to fundamental Church goals.

(2/2) Spanish Daily ABC: A follow-up question on my previous one, also regarding Pope Francis’ passing. Pope #Francis publicly expressed several times his desire to visit China and meet with Chinese leader. I would like to ask, would the Vatican breaking diplomatic ties with… pic.twitter.com/8ARhaVMcQB

— DHMT_MFA_CHINA (@DHMT_MFA_CHINA) April 25, 2025

Future Prospects and Concerns

The Vatican remains Taiwan’s sole European ally, underscoring its symbolic diplomatic significance. The 2018 historic agreement on Chinese bishops demonstrates the Vatican’s growing engagement with China but also raises concerns about pressure from Beijing, which insists countries sever ties with Taiwan before establishing relations with China. The next pope’s approach to China, unabating yet cautious, is pivotal to Taiwan-Vatican relations. Analysts argue that anticipated changes in these relations are exaggerated.

Taiwan’s diplomatic tact and adaptability are essential as it navigates uncertainties among Vatican, China, and global diplomacy. Despite potential diplomatic shifts, Taiwan’s resilience remains crucial in fortifying its status on the global stage.