What’s Driving the Recent Spike in Egg Prices?

Various eggs in a nest on straw bedding

Egg prices are set to soar by up to 20% before year’s end, driven by a devastating bird flu outbreak and new cage-free legislation.

Key Takeaways

  • Egg prices have spiked from $2.51 to $4.15 per dozen due to bird flu and cage-free laws.
  • The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has led to the culling of millions of hens.
  • New state-imposed cage-free production requirements are inflating operational costs.
  • Consumers face rising prices and empty shelves as the industry struggles to meet demand.
  • Experts predict continued price volatility until flocks are rebuilt and production recovers.

Bird Flu Devastates Egg Industry

The egg industry is grappling with a severe outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which has decimated flocks across the nation. Since January 2022, over 134 million birds have been affected, with more than 102.6 million egg-laying hens culled. This unprecedented loss has created a significant supply shortage, driving egg prices to record highs.

The absence of a vaccine or medical treatment for bird flu compounds the problem. Farms are forced to cull entire flocks when the virus is detected, and it takes five months for a chicken to mature and begin laying eggs. This extended recovery period ensures that the supply chain disruption will continue well into the future.

Cage-Free Laws Exacerbate Price Hikes

Adding to the industry’s woes, new state-imposed cage-free production requirements are further inflating operational costs. Michigan’s recent implementation of a cage-free egg law has led to empty shelves and price increases in local stores. Tim Boring from the state’s Department of Agriculture and Rural Development acknowledged the situation, stating:

“I know that there have been some sourcing issues resulting in less than fully stocked grocery shelves here today.”

This law, passed in 2009 with a 2019 implementation date, mandates cage-free eggs for producers with more than 3,000 hens. Similar laws in seven other states, coupled with commitments from major retailers to sell only cage-free eggs, are contributing to shortages and higher prices nationwide.

Consumer Impact and Price Projections

Consumers are bearing the brunt of these industry challenges. The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs rose from $3.65 in November to $4.15 in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This represents a staggering 37% increase in just one year, far outpacing the overall food price inflation of 2.5%.

Experts predict that egg prices could rise by as much as 20% before the end of the year. The ongoing bird flu threat, combined with the transition to cage-free production, suggests that price volatility will persist until flocks are rebuilt and production levels recover. This process is expected to take several years, given the current challenges facing the industry.

Industry Adaptation and Future Outlook

The egg industry is scrambling to adapt to these new realities. Biosecurity practices have become paramount, as they represent the only defense against bird flu in the absence of medical treatments. However, these measures are particularly challenging for pasture-raised chickens, which are at increased risk of HPAI exposure from wild birds.

According to the University of Minnesota’s website on avian influenza, “Poultry get HPAI from infected waterfowl (ducks and geese) and gulls, which may frequent wetlands on farms. Thus, poultry raised outdoors or with outdoor access are at greater risk of HPAI.”

As the industry grapples with these challenges, consumers can expect continued price fluctuations and potential shortages in the coming months. The path to stability in the egg market remains uncertain, with recovery timelines extending into the foreseeable future. For now, both producers and consumers must adapt to this new reality in the American egg industry.

Sources:

  1. https://www.axios.com/local/detroit/2025/01/15/michigan-new-cage-free-law-bird-flu-expensive-eggs
  2. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/why-are-eggs-so-expensive
  3. https://nypost.com/2025/01/19/business/egg-prices-may-rise-as-much-as-20-by-end-of-the-year-says-expert-heres-why/
  4. https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/egg-prices-may-soon-rise-expert-why-how-much