Trump’s Shock Play Leaves Senate Seat Hanging

President Trump shocks Texas Republicans by praising all three Senate primary candidates without endorsing any, just as early voting kicks off—leaving the GOP’s prized seat hanging in precarious balance.

Story Snapshot

Trump declares he likes Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt equally but holds back endorsement aboard Air Force One on February 16, 2026.
Paxton leads polls at 36-38%, Cornyn trails at 27-31%, Hunt at 15%, with 22% undecided.
Early voting starts February 17; primary set for March 3, 2026, amid fears of a bloody fight weakening the general election nominee.
Trump’s neutrality tests his massive sway—89% favorable among GOP primary voters, 55% more likely to back his pick.
Establishment pushes Cornyn; MAGA rallies to Paxton in clash of Texas GOP factions.

Trump’s Calculated Neutrality on Air Force One

President Donald Trump spoke aboard Air Force One on February 16, 2026. He praised Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Trump called all three friends who supported him. He refused endorsement, saying the race has a ways to go. This statement hit as early voting began the next day. GOP leaders worry a fractured primary drains resources before the November general election. Trump’s move defies his pattern of early picks in key races.

Texas Senate Primary Polls and Frontrunners

Ken Paxton holds a clear lead in recent polls. Pulse and Hobby School surveys show him at 36-38%. John Cornyn sits at 27-31%. Wesley Hunt trails with 15%. Twenty-two percent remain undecided. Paxton draws strength from Trump Movement voters. Cornyn leads among traditional Republicans. Cornyn boasts a fundraising edge and attacks Paxton’s electability. Paxton counters by branding Cornyn a RINO for votes on Ukraine aid, DREAM Act, and post-Uvalde gun bill. Hunt appeals to the base but lags.

Deep Rifts in Texas Republican Party

The 2026 Texas Senate GOP primary exposes a raw divide. Establishment backs Cornyn for his fifth term. Hardline conservatives rally Paxton and Hunt. Texas GOP hard-right factions oust moderates in recent cycles. Trump once labeled Cornyn a hopeless RINO over gun legislation. Now Trump lauds both Paxton and Cornyn. Ted Cruz endorsed Cornyn in 2020 but stays neutral. Greg Abbott and JD Vance hold high favorability but withhold picks. Trump commands 89% approval among primary voters.

Power rests with influencers. Trump’s nod sways 55% of voters. Senate leaders urge him toward Cornyn to unify. Paxton surges despite low initial name recognition. Cornyn deploys funds against him. This intra-party war risks a battered nominee facing Democrats like Jasmine Crockett.

Trump Withholds Endorsement As Texas GOP Senate Primary Early Voting Beginshttps://t.co/K9cykk9pPB

— RedState (@RedState) February 17, 2026

High Stakes and Voter Timeline

Early voting opened February 17, 2026. The primary hits March 3. General election looms November 3. Recent timeline marks Colin Allred’s December 2025 Democratic exit, paving for Crockett. January Hobby poll highlighted Paxton’s edge and Trump’s pull. Trump’s February 16 words: I like all three. They’ve supported me. We’ll see. No new endorsements from Cruz or others emerge. Cornyn ramps fundraising. Paxton boosts spending.

Impacts on GOP Unity and National Senate Map

Short-term, the brawl saps GOP cash and energy. Low turnout or weak winner threatens the seat. Texas elects no Democrats statewide since 1994. A messy primary could change that. Long-term, Paxton victory cements MAGA control in Texas GOP. Cornyn win preserves establishment. Trump’s 49% Texas approval faces test. Divides sharpen on guns and immigration. National Republicans eye Texas for Senate majority. Volatility signals risks in other red states.