Shock Polls Clash: Who Actually Leads?

A Trump-endorsed conservative and a self-styled “America First” hardliner are battling in Louisiana, and the result will show just how much muscle the president’s word still carries inside the Republican Party.

Story Snapshot

President Trump has made Rep. Julia Letlow his **only** choice in Louisiana’s Republican Senate runoff, calling her a “total winner” and urging voters to back her.
Letlow leads on past votes and some polls, but state Treasurer John Fleming claims the “true conservative” mantle and has his own survey showing him ahead.
The race follows Trump’s successful push to oust anti-Trump Senator Bill Cassidy, turning this runoff into a clear loyalty test inside the GOP.
Low expected turnout means a small group of motivated conservatives will decide whether Trump’s endorsed candidate or Fleming’s “sticky” base wins.

Trump’s Chosen Candidate and the Anti-Cassidy Revolt

President Donald Trump put his weight behind U.S. Representative Julia Letlow early, backing her for the Louisiana Senate seat before she even entered the race in January.^[6] He later labeled her his “ONLY” choice and a “total winner,” signaling to grassroots conservatives that she is the reliable ally in this contest.^[1] That endorsement helped drive Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump after January 6, into a humiliating third-place finish in the May primary.^[11] Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming advanced, turning the runoff into a pure Republican family fight over loyalty and direction for the party.^[7]

Primary results show how much Trump’s backing mattered. Letlow won nearly 45 percent of the vote, with Fleming far behind at about 28 percent and Cassidy around 25 percent.^[1] In a state that has voted safely Republican in recent presidential races, that outcome sent a loud message: crossing Trump comes at a price.^[12] Letlow has told supporters they now have a chance to “send a clear message that Louisiana stands with President Trump,” tightly tying her bid to the president’s agenda.^[6] For many conservatives upset with Cassidy’s impeachment vote, this runoff is the next step in cleaning out weak Republicans.^[11]

Letlow’s Record on Parents’ Rights and Trump’s Agenda

Julia Letlow is not just running on loyalty; she has built a record focused on family and education that speaks to parents tired of woke classroom politics.^[11] She authored a Parents Bill of Rights aimed at giving families more control and removing leftist content from school curricula, a key concern for many conservative voters.^[10] In a recent tele-town hall, Trump urged Louisianans to “get out and vote for Julia Letlow,” praising her as a champion for his America First agenda and for Louisiana’s values.^[5] Letlow presents herself as the conservative who will stand with the president in the Senate, including backing major reforms like ending the filibuster to pass a SAVE America package.^[5]

Letlow also enjoys backing from top Louisiana Republicans, including Governor Jeff Landry and U.S. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who consulted with Trump about her running for Senate.^[6] That support signals that much of the state’s conservative leadership views her as the best vehicle to defend gun rights, fight federal overreach, and push back against the Biden-era regulatory state.^[1] Her campaign argues that sending a Trump-endorsed conservative to the Senate will help lock in the president’s second-term agenda, from securing the border to lowering energy costs for working families.^[6] For voters angry about inflation and cultural radicalism, Letlow’s team wants this race to feel like a clear-cut referendum.

Fleming’s “America First” Pitch and the Polling Clash

John Fleming, a former U.S. House member and Trump administration official, is not conceding the “America First” label without a fight.^[8] He calls himself the “prototypical America First candidate” and insists he is the most conservative choice, pointing to his close relationship with Trump during their time in Washington.^[2] Fleming has attacked Letlow over diversity and inclusion comments she made years ago, branding them as part of Marxist-style indoctrination and questioning whether she is truly aligned with grassroots conservatives.^[5] He has also taken a strong stand against the carbon capture sequestration industry, calling it dangerous and a threat to Louisiana citizens, which resonates with voters wary of globalist climate agendas.^[1]

Polls now tell two different stories, creating real suspense for conservatives watching this race. One Kaplan Strategies survey shows Letlow up 52 percent to 37 percent, matching her strong primary showing and Trump’s influence.^[11] Yet a JMC Analytics poll cited by Fleming’s allies claims he leads 45 percent to 40 percent in the runoff, suggesting late momentum for his insurgent campaign.^[3] Analysts caution that internal and campaign-commissioned polls can be biased, but the mere existence of competing numbers lets national media frame the contest as a test of Trump’s clout rather than a simple choice between two conservatives.^[5] That narrative frustrates many on the right, who see the fight as about issues like parental authority, energy policy, and border security—not just horse-race drama.

Turnout, “Sticky” Voters, and What’s at Stake for Conservatives

Election watchers warn that turnout in Saturday’s runoff could be “anemic,” which changes the battlefield.^[5] In low-turnout races, a motivated base often matters more than broad name recognition. Fleming’s supporters argue he has a “sticky constituency” of loyal local conservatives who show up no matter what, potentially cutting into Letlow’s early advantage.^[7] At the same time, Trump’s endorsement has a strong history in Louisiana runoffs, where his chosen Republicans have usually prevailed when the base is energized.^[2] That track record is one reason Letlow’s allies remain confident that the president’s word will carry her over the finish line.^[6]

President Trump’s endorsement in #LASEN ousted Sen. Bill Cassidy during the May GOP primary

Yet Trump’s pick—Rep. Julia Letlow—isn’t guaranteed to win today’s runoff against state Treasurer John Fleming

ED votes will be crucial for her

(Free to read)https://t.co/arNoZjSzny

— Nicholas Anastácio (@NenoNicolosio) June 27, 2026

The stakes go far beyond one Senate seat. Republicans already hold a narrow majority in the chamber, and Louisiana is expected to remain safely red.^[10] A Letlow victory would put a Trump-endorsed conservative in this seat for years and send another warning to any Republican who thinks about breaking with the president again.^[8] A Fleming upset, on the other hand, would show that even in deep-red states, local conservative networks can override Trump’s hand-picked choices if they believe another candidate better reflects their values. Either way, this runoff is a clear reminder: the future of the Republican Party will be decided not in Washington, but by grassroots conservatives in places like Louisiana, who are tired of betrayal, woke agendas, and empty promises from the political class.